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Kevin Erdmann
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As a private investor, I have concentrated on deep value and turnaround microcaps, where illiquid trading markets and reputational risks allow mispricing to be occasionally extreme.
Over the past few years, I have developed a radical new macro-level view of the economy. I have found that the housing bubble was not caused by reckless lending or over-investment in housing. Rather, it was caused by a shortage of housing in several important urban markets. The subsequent bust and financial crisis were not inevitable collapses of a demand bubble but were avoidable and self-imposed consequences of a moral panic about building and borrowing.
The key factors providing insights into financial markets going forward are related to the shortage of housing and the disastrous public policy responses to it. This has led to high rent inflation, perpetually tight monetary policy, a divergence of yields between US housing and bond markets, very low rates of new construction, and labor immobility/stagnation.
Two books are in the works on the topic. Here is the first:
Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy
I am currently a Visiting Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Over the past few years, I have developed a radical new macro-level view of the economy. I have found that the housing bubble was not caused by reckless lending or over-investment in housing. Rather, it was caused by a shortage of housing in several important urban markets. The subsequent bust and financial crisis were not inevitable collapses of a demand bubble but were avoidable and self-imposed consequences of a moral panic about building and borrowing.
The key factors providing insights into financial markets going forward are related to the shortage of housing and the disastrous public policy responses to it. This has led to high rent inflation, perpetually tight monetary policy, a divergence of yields between US housing and bond markets, very low rates of new construction, and labor immobility/stagnation.
Two books are in the works on the topic. Here is the first:
Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy
I am currently a Visiting Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.