Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
Recent movements in gold futures align with indecisive oil price trends, influenced by shifting statements from President Trump regarding de-escalation of the conflict with Iran. A sudden market move remains possible this weekend, as Iran has not formally responded to Trump’s decision. Tehran previously stated it was awaiting a response from Washington to its ceasefire conditions.
On Friday, gold futures, after starting the day at $4,432.09, tested the day’s high at $4,502.35, the day’s low at $4,402.35, and are trading at $4,493.12, could test the immediate resistance at $4,620.80 as President Donald Trump said the US will hold off on targeting Iranian energy sites for another 10 days.
Undoubtedly, this pause on strikes had been set to expire on Friday while “talks are going on” with Tehran, President Trump has said.
Trump has insisted that it’s up to Iranian leaders to convince him to halt the war, saying he doesn’t care about making a deal. Iranian state media has said the regime has “complete doubts” about Washington’s willingness to negotiate.
Attacks are continuing across the region, with Iran reporting overnight strikes in multiple cities, including Tehran and Urmia.
I observed that the oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Friday and were set to post a weekly loss, as hopes of easing Middle East tensions reduced the risk premium that had supported markets in recent sessions.
On the other hand, gold futures rose in Asian trading on Friday, supported by a slightly softer U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran.
But in a cabinet meeting, special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed the US had sent Iran a 15-point peace plan – Trump said the US would be Iran’s “worst nightmare” if it did not agree to a peace deal.
I observed that the currently prevailing scenario could change this weekend, as US President Trump has been known to change his stances suddenly, especially on weekends.
President Donald Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the war against Iran should his latest push for diplomacy fail.
While the military campaign has heavily focused on bombing the country so far, Pentagon officials preparing for the next phase of war have drawn up scenarios for deploying troops to seize various targets within Iran, according to media reports. Yet not only would those scenarios risk heavy casualties, but there is also little guarantee they would successfully end the conflict.
I find that technically, gold futures could experience selling in the last hours on Friday as overleveraged speculative positions are likely to shed amid growing uncertainty this weekend.
Technically, gold futures are showing weakness, as they are trading below the significant support at the 100 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which is $4,616.28. The formation of a “Bearish Crossover,” where the 9-period EMA ($4,618.75) and 20-period EMA ($4,793) move below the 50-period EMA ($4,832), further indicates downward momentum.
If gold futures fall below the immediate support at $4,346.32, it could accelerate the decline to test the next support at the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which is $4,096.
Inversely, any upward move will provide a good opportunity to sell above the 100 EMA ($4,616).
I conclude that any positive development on the de-escalation of the US-Israel war with Iran could start next week with a gap-down opening by gold futures, while further escalation will also keep gold futures in bearish territory, as the extension of oil prices will raise stagflation fears globally.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.